🧠 Food for Thought - Mariona Caldentey: The Solution to our Chance-to-Goal Conversion Problems?

Mariona Caldentey joins the club with no shortage of accolades | Getty

Much deliberation goes into getting the perfect transfer done, and while Vivianne Miedema's exit necessitated the recruitment of another elite forward, I'd like to think Mariona Caldentey's arrival to North London was primarily the brainchild of our conversion woes in front of goal.

However, with numerous titles under her belt and accolades galore, the "serial winner" factor would've played a key part in identifying the gifted Spaniard as a primary target. In fact, one might even ask...

🤷 What Goal Conversion Problems?

With negative goal-xG index and underwhelming shots registered on target, one of the underlying reasons for our inconsistencies last season was our goal conversion troubles, emphasizing a blatant shout for much-needed improvement in this area.

The Spanish international consistently puts up highly encouraging numbers | Getty

👷 Super Mario to the Rescue?

Coming off her most prolific season for the Catalan giants yet, Mariona Caldentey was an obvious candidate for the job. But, how exactly does the addition of the lethal forward help solve our problems in the final third? Well, let's break down how she improves our attacking numbers in four metrics, step by step. Remember, details matter.

🎯 1. Shots on Target.

In order to score, you must shoot and in order to increase your likelihood of scoring, you must get your shots on target. This is something we've struggled with as we ranked third for shots on target per game last season. What's interesting, though, is the fact that Mariona Caldentey (45.2%) single-handedly outperformed our entire squad's rate at finding the bull's eye (31.6%).

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Women 23/24 Domestic League Shooting Stats Courtesy of FBRef

The Spanish international also outshone our entire forward line in this regard. Only Beth Mead (40.0%) came close. I think it's important to note, though, the shots on target per game (SoT/90) metric as not all players got equal minutes in the domestic league campaigns (WSL and Liga F). Mariona (1.67) still has all our forwards beat save Stina (1.87) who got the majority of her minutes in the League Cup where she successfully led us to retaining our trophy. This implies Stina was still ruthless with the limited minutes she got in the WSL. More on this shortly.

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Forwards 23/24 Domestic League Shooting Stats Courtesy of FBRef

📈 2. xG.

The expected goals (xG) stat is one that's keenly monitored by teams and bookies alike in the modern game. Successful teams tend to overperform their xG. We weren't one of those teams in the previous season. In fact, we were one of only four teams to underperform our xG in the league (read more here). So, it should come as no surprise that Caldentey (+1.7) comfortably beat our entire squad's goal-xG difference (-4.0).

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Women 23/24 Domestic League xG Stats Courtesy of FBRef

Indeed, only Beth Mead (+1.2) and Cloe Lacasse (+0.7) recorded positive indexes out of our entire forwards roster. They were still outshone by the former Barcelona star though.

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Forwards 23/24 Domestic League xG Stats Courtesy of FBRef

🅰️ 3. Assists.

An assist is the key pass that leads directly to a goal and is therefore a vital metric in determining chance-to-goal conversion. An assist registered is a goal registered and with Mariona Caldentey's high output in this field (9), our attack can only look to benefit from the Spaniard's addition as none came close to touching her numbers, not even when we consider the per 90 ratio.

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Forwards 23/24 Domestic League Assist Stats Courtesy of FBRef

⚽ 4. Goals.

Looking at our attacking force, only Russo (12) outscored Caldentey (10) in the domestic league campaign. The new recruit's double figures are particularly encouraging, considering they come primarily from out wide.

Mariona Caldentey v Arsenal Forwards 23/24 Domestic League Goal Stats Courtesy of FBRef

Again, considering the goals per game (Gls/90) metric, Stina's high output (0.94) reinforces her ruthlessness with the limited minutes seen in the league. Russo (0.63) and Caldentey (0.60) aren't far behind the ballerina.

🥜 The Nutshell.

In a nutshell, while just one player can't possibly solve all of your problems, adding the right one to the right setup possibly can. And with Caldentey's positive indexes in all the right goal-conversion metrics (SoT, xG, Assists and Goals), Jonas Eidevall and his team have clearly identified a vital area for improvement in the squad and recruited correctly, I feel, to fill the gap. Mariona's Champions League pedigree would've also been a recruitment factor after our disappointing early exit in the competition last season.

I feel it's also important to highlight some of the new signing's percentile rankings (compared to positional peers in Women's Top 9 Competitions over the last 365 days). Considering out-and-out centre-forwards are also ranked, it's no wonder she doesn't do all too well in the Non-Pen Goals metric (40). However, she still ranks very highly in a lot of creative attacking stats, including Shot-Creating Actions (99), Successful Take-Ons (98) and Assists (98).

Mariona Caldentey Standard Stats Percentile Rankings Courtesy of FBRef

So, is Mariona Caldentey the solution to our chance-to-goal conversion problems? The numbers would imply yes. Yes, she is!

Mariona Caldentey has been an elite addition to an already promising Arsenal attack | Getty

"I can’t wait to get started and help the team win trophies and entertain our supporters.”

- Mariona Caldentey speaking to Arsenal after signing for the club